Macro Landscape 1,2 and Petroleum Market 3,4
In the year 2024, the global economic environment experienced an improvement, driven by moderating inflation, declining commodity prices, widespread monetary easing, a resurgence in global trade, and an increasing risk appetite. It is estimated that the global economy grew by 2.7% in 2024, consistent with the previous year’s growth rate of 2.7%. Looking ahead to 2025, it is anticipated that the global economy will grow by 2.7%, reflecting the stabilization of inflation and the continuation of monetary easing, while policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and adverse shifts in trade policy may present ongoing risks.
In the advanced economies, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to have experienced an increase of 1.7% in 2024, mirroring the 1.7% growth observed in 2023. In the emerging market and developing economies, the GDP is expected to have grown by 4.1% in 2024, consistent with the 4.2% growth recorded in 2023. Looking ahead to 2025, economic expansion is forecasted to reach 1.7% in the advanced economies and 4.1% in the emerging market and developing economies. This growth is primarily expected based on the anticipated easing of inflation and interest rates, amid however, persisting policy uncertainties and strengthening trade conditions.
In the Euro Area, economic growth experienced moderate acceleration during 2024, with an estimated increase in GDP of 0.7%, compared to the 0.4% growth achieved in 2023. Despite the rebound in the latter half of the year, the economy has remained generally subdued due to ongoing challenges in the industrial sector and political uncertainties, which have led to limited policy responses. The thriving services sector has contributed to a persistently elevated price environment, with headline inflation as of December 2024 registering a 2.4% y-o-y increase. The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced benchmark deposit rates by 100 basis points (bps) during 2024 to stimulate economic activity. Economic growth in the Euro Area for 2025 is projected to be 1.0%, driven by a combination of cyclical recovery, inflation reduction, continued accommodative monetary policy, and rising real income. While the services sector is expected to remain the primary driver of growth, an improvement in industrial production is also anticipated in the near term; however, trade protectionism measures, including the potential imposition of tariffs, may pose a significant risk to the industrial recovery of the region.
In the United States, as a consequence of the initiation of monetary easing and the presidential election, risk appetite strengthened, accompanied by a substantial increase in investment spending. Economic growth during the first half of 2024 exceeded expectations; however, activity towards the latter part of the year exhibited tentative indications of deceleration, reflecting the easing of labor market conditions and a weakening of consumer sentiment. Overall, the United States economy appears to be approaching a soft landing, characterized by slower growth as inflation gradually diminishes towards its target level. This environment allows the Federal Reserve to continue with further easing of monetary policy, while productivity gains and an expansion in labor supply are expected to demonstrate greater resilience. The estimated economic growth for 2024 is projected at 2.8%, with a forecasted deceleration to 2.3% in 2025.
In relation to emerging economies, the economic growth of China is projected to have settled at 4.9% in 2024, marking the slowest performance in over three decades excluding the pandemic era. Economic activity contracted during the second half of 2024, following slower consumption growth, amid weak consumer confidence and a decrease in real estate investment. Retail sales growth remained subdued, leading to inflation rates falling below pre-pandemic averages. In Turkey, the economy expanded by an estimated 3.2% in 2024, in contrast to 5.1% in 2023, reflecting the impact of tighter monetary policy and a contraction in economic activity. Private demand moderated, with the economy experiencing a recession during the third quarter of 2024, with headline inflation having peaked at 75.5% y-o-y during May 2024.
In 2024, the average EUR / USD exchange rate remained unchanged compared to the previous year, at 1.08. It exhibited fluctuations within a range of 1.05 to 1.11, primarily influenced by macro-economic projections, inflation expectations, interest rate variations and decisions made by central banks in both the US and the Eurozone.
1 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
2 OPEC “Monthly Oil Market Report”, January 2025
3 OPEC “Monthly Oil Market Report”, January 2025
4 EIA, Today in Energy, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64304
In 2024, the global demand for oil increased by 1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd), amounting to 103.8 mbpd.
According to OPEC, the global demand for oil in 2024 reached 103.8 million barrels per day (mbpd), which represents a y-o-y increase of 1.6 mbpd. It is projected that in 2025, the demand will further rise by 1.4 mbpd to reach 105.2 mbpd, driven by heightened air travel activity, enhanced road mobility, and the expansion of the industrial, construction, and agricultural sectors in nonOECD countries.
In Europe, oil demand experienced a 0.1 mbpd increase in 2024, primarily driven by air travel and driving activity, while demand in the US remained broadly unchanged. In China, oil demand was 0.3 mbpd higher, primarily driven by petrochemical feedstock demand and the continued recovery of air travel, as expansionary fiscal and monetary stimulus measures provided support to domestic demand.
Globally, the oil supply in 2024 experienced an increase of 0.3 mbpd in comparison to the previous year. Specifically, crude oil production by OPEC decreased by 0.4 mbpd in 2024 compared to the previous year, while non-OPEC supply increased by 0.7m bpd, primarily driven by the US.
In 2024, crude oil prices experienced a decline, with Brent crude averaging $81/bbl, representing a 2.3% decrease y-o-y, as weakening global economic growth more than offset the upward price pressure exerted by production cuts from OPEC+, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. Notably, during the initial part of the year, crude oil prices recorded an increase, primarily due to reduced production from OPEC+ member countries, with Brent crude reaching its peak for the year at $93/bbl at the beginning of April, further supported by geopolitical tensions. However, in the latter part of the year, a slowdown in economic activity and a reduction in demand from China contributed to a decrease in the price of Brent crude towards the end of 2024.
Regarding crude oil differentials, the average spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) shaped at $5/bbl in 2024, broadly unchanged compared to 2023.
Benchmark Refining Margins 5
In 2024, benchmark margins for Mediterranean refineries normalized after experiencing a particularly strong period during the preceding two years. The increased demand for oil products was adequately met by a higher supply of oil products, facilitated by new refinery capacity. The benchmark Med cracking margin averaged $3.8/bbl in 2024, $4.7/bbl lower y-o-y, while the benchmark Med Hydroskimming margin averaged $-0.6/bbl, $2.5/bbl lower y-o-y.
Benchmark margins for Mediterranean refineries normalized further in 2024, after experiencing a particularly strong period during the preceding two years.
Oil Product Cracks ($/bbl) 6
Gasoline cracks decreased in 2024 averaging $14.2/bbl vs $18.6/bbl in 2023 on loosening supply-demand balances. Diesel cracks fell in 2024 averaging $19.1/bbl compared with $26.6/ bbl in 2023, driven by slowing industrial activity in Europe, weaker construction sector and increased competition from LNG in China, as well as relatively ample inventories. On the contrary, High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) cracks improved to an average of $-10.6/bbl in 2024 vs $-15.2/ bbl in 2023, supported by healthy bunkering demand, while naphtha cracks also improved to an average of $-10.8/bbl in 2024 vs $-14.8/bbl in 2023, primarily reflecting higher demand from the petrochemical industry.
Natural gas, electricity and EUA prices 7, 8, 9
The price of natural gas in the EU continued to normalize in 2024, with the average TTF gas price shaping at €34.6/MWh (-16% y-o-y), after having dropped to a monthly average of €25.8/MWh in February 2024, attributed to more balanced supply-demand conditions. However, as the year progressed, the TTF gas price increased towards a monthly average of €45/MWh in December 2024, primarily driven by uncertainties regarding Russian exports via Ukraine and an accelerated depletion of European gas storage due to weather conditions. The decrease of the price of natural gas in 2024 influenced the electricity prices. In Greece, the Day Ahead Market Clearing Price (DAM MCP) averaged €100.9/MWh in 2024, lower by 16% y-o-y. Furthermore, the price of carbon allowances in the European Union (EUAs) traded into a closer range compared to 2023, averaging €65.5/tn in 2024, representing a 22% decrease compared to the previous year.
7 Bloomberg, EUA prices, January 2025
8 Electricity prices are based on the DAM MCP, which stands for Day Ahead Market, Market Clearing Price, Source:
Energy Exchange Group, January 2025
9 ACER, Key developments in European gas wholesale markets “2024 Market Monitoring Report”, October 2024
Greek Market 10
In 2024, according to estimates by the Bank of Greece, the Greek economy exhibited a growth rate of 2.3%, mirroring the performance of 2023, and outpacing that of the Eurozone despite the prevailing uncertain international environment.
This growth was primarily driven by improvements in private consumption, increased investments and the expansion of exports of services. Private consumption was bolstered by stronger employment figures and significantly higher gross salaries. However, the net contribution from the foreign sector was marginally negative due to a decline in exports of goods coupled with an increase in imports. Furthermore, the contribution to GDP from public expenditure was negative, while harmonized inflation eased compared to 2023. The improved economic conditions were also evident in the narrowing of the funding spread between Greece and other European countries. Despite potentially elevated regional geopolitical risks and a deteriorating trade environment, the Greek economy is projected to grow at pace faster than that of the Eurozone in 2025 and the subsequent years. According to the Bank of Greece, the growth rate of the Greek economy is projected to accelerate to 2.3% in 2025 before moderating to 2.1% in 2026. This growth is expected to be primarily driven by private consumption, with investments and exports continuing to contribute positively, while inflation is expected to gradually decrease in the forthcoming years, aligning with the target set by the European Central Bank. Regarding fiscal indicators, the general government’s primary surplus is anticipated to increase to 2.6% of GDP in 2025, while public debt is estimated to decrease further to 144.4% of GDP.
Regarding energy consumption, preliminary official data reveals that domestic fuel demand in 2024 amounted to 6.8m MT, representing a 2.5% increase compared to the previous year. Demand for automotive fuels witnessed an increase of 3.3% (diesel +3.9% and gasoline +2.4%) due to heightened mobility. Similarly, consumption of heating gasoil demonstrated a 2.4% increase.
Geopolitical Events
Geopolitical instability persisted throughout 2024, with the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as various tensions in the Middle East, perpetuating a state of uncertainty in international trade. This instability has led to more frequent disruptions in the supply of goods and services, necessitating the restructuring of global supply chains and trade flows. Furthermore, estimates suggest that the political developments observed globally during 2024 may foster conditions conducive to trade protectionism in the current year, potentially impacting global trade. The Group diligently monitors these developments and adjusts its operations in accordance with prevailing conditions.
